Poll: Noem extends lead, Fiegen/McGovern race tightens, IM 15 opposition grows

Talk about it

Initiated Measure 15 is losing support among likely South Dakota voters, according to a poll released the day before the election.

In addition, Rep. Kristi Noem widened her lead, and the Public Utilities Commission race between incumbent Kristie Fiegen and Matt McGovern tightened.

Those were among the results in the final pre-election poll released Monday by Nielson Brothers Polling, a Sioux Falls firm.

Opposition to IM 15 continues to build as support weakens, according to NBP. The ballot question has now fallen behind, as 49 percent say they will vote against it, 38.9 percent say they will vote for it, and 12.1 percent say they are undecided.

Democrat McGovern is in a statistical dead heat with Republican Fiegen (he leads 41.9 to 41.6 percent), according to NBP. Libertarian Russell Clarke receives 6.7 percent of support, with 9.8 percent undecided.

NBP surveyed a random selection of likely South Dakota voters Wednesday through Sunday.

Republican candidates have extended their leads in other major races. Noem appears headed for re-election to the House, as she extended her lead to 12.7 percentage points over Democratic challenger Matt Varilek (53.9 to 41.2 percent), with 4.9 percent undecided.

In the other race for PUC, incumbent Republican Chris Nelson maintained a large lead over Democrat Nick Nemec 59.2 percent to 27.6 percent, with 13.2 percent undecided.

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney appears poised to win in South Dakota, as he holds an 11.9-point advantage over Democrat Barack Obama (53.2 to 41.3 percent), with 5.6 percent undecided.

NBP also asked whether voters support the Republican or the Democratic state Senate candidate in their legislative district. The generic Republican Senate candidates hold a 46.7 to 34.7 percent advantage, with 18.6 percent undecided.

As with previous NBP surveys, both Referred Laws 14 and 16 appear to be in danger of falling.

Referred Law 14 still struggles to pick up support, as only 27.6 percent of respondents say they will vote for this law — which would transfer 22 percent of the contractors’ excise tax from the state’s general fund to a Large Project Development Fund.

According to the poll, 42.4 percent say they will vote against it, and 30 percent remain undecided.

Referred Law 16 also trails in support with 28.2 percent of respondents saying they will vote for it, and 53.8 percent planning to vote against it, while 18.1 percent remain undecided. The proposed education reform plan would establish programs for teacher scholarships and bonuses, standardize teacher and principal evaluations, and eliminate tenure requirements.

The number of responses ranged from to 558 (4.15 percent margin of error) to 658 (3.82 percent margin of error).

Tags: election 2012, kristi noem, matt varilek, matt mcgovern, kristie fiegen, news, updates, breakingnews, poll, taxes, education, state, congress, politics, voting