Poll: Heidepriem gains, Daugaard slips

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A new Democratic-commissioned poll claims Scott Heidepriem and Ben Arndt are gaining ground in the gubernatorial race and Dennis Daugaard and Matt Michels are losing it.

According to the Democrats, the new poll shows Heidepriem now trails Daugaard 45-32 percent with 22 percent undecided.

“We think it’s a good sign,” said Heiedepriem campaign manager Steve Jarding. “This is a time when a lot of voters are starting to pay attention, particularly in a low-profile race.”

The Democratic team has trailed by nearly 30 points all summer, according to the numbers from Rasmussen Reports, a conservative-leaning pollster. The Democrats said that wasn’t accurate and said they were right on track. They point to the new poll as proof.

“Clearly good things are breaking,” said Jarding, a Mitchell native. “Some of it shouldn’t be overly surprising. Denny isn’t that well known. Lieutenant governors in South Dakota are rarely high profile.”

Daugaard’s campaign manager, Tony Venhuizen, was quick to dismiss the poll.

Venhuizen said Glen Bolger of Public Opinion Strategies has done internal polling for the Republican candidate and it continues to show an overwhelming lead for the lieutenant governor.

“That poll showed Dennis with a 58-30 lead in the election for governor, and is very comparable to the 57-33 margin reported by Rasmussen Reports a few days prior,” he said.

Venhuizen said a Daugaard supporter said he participated in this survey and considered it to be a “push poll,” which aims to persuade voters, not to judge their support.

“Finally, even in this poll, Dennis holds a double-digit lead of 45-32,” he said.

Jarding said the poll reflects a trend they have detected in recent days. He said Daugaard’s support has been “soft” and some of his supporters are switching sides while many undecided voters are choosing the Democratic team.

“If these numbers continue, this could be a dead heat real fast,” Jarding said. “Well, that’s the hope. You always hope to peak at the right time.”

Venhuizen, who is also Daugaard’s son-in-law, said he doubts the race has seen a dramatic change.

“We haven’t seen any sign of that,” he said. “I have great confidence in our own polling.”

Venhuizen said while the Democrats are reporting gains in a new poll, they haven’t released an earlier poll to indicate how things have shifted.

“They really don’t have a reference point,” he said.

Jarding said the campaign chose not to spend a lot of money advertising this summer and he said that explains the tightening race.

“I think the poll confirms we were wise not to do that,” he said. “People were not paying attention.”

Daugaard may have wasted money with his advertising campaign, Jarding said, while their ad push was timed for the final days of the campaign.

Heidepriem, the Democratic leader in the state Senate, launched a steppedup ad campaign in late September that included a 30-minute infomercial.

“We have terrific response to the half-hour program,” Jarding said.

“People are just getting to know Scott,” he said. “A lot of folks are just starting to see Scott. A lot of them are converting.”

Venhuizen said their polls don’t show any slippage and the campaign is continuing on the same course.

The candidates will have three more chances to debate and persuade voters they are the right choice to replace Gov. Mike Rounds, the Republican who is barred from seeking a third term.

Three debates will be held in eight days: A tea party debate in Sioux Falls tonight, a South Dakota Public Television debate Thursday and one on KELO-TV on Monday, Oct. 25. The second two will be televised across the state.

That will mean Daugaard and Heidepriem will have debated 16 times during the general election campaign, Venhuizen said. Other debates were held during the primary races and he said his candidate has participated in more than 20 forums and debates this year,

The Democrats’ new figures come on the heels of a late TV advertising burst by Heidepriem and Arndt, who are saying the state’s budget is a mess and they can solve the problem.

The poll was done by RMA Research, a division of Robinson & Muenster Associates, Inc., from Oct. 11-14 and reportedly has a margin of error of 4.9 percent. Robinson & Muenster was founded by prominent liberals and Democrats, including Ted Muenster, who served as chief of staff for Dick Kneip, the last Democrat to serve as South Dakota’s governor.

Kneip was elected in 1970, 1972 and 1974. Since that time, GOP gubernatorial candidates have compiled the longest winning streak in the nation.

Venhuizen said the fact that the firm has done work for South Dakota Democrats for years further raises questions about its credibility.

Tags: election 2010, scott heidepriem, dennis daugaard, news, state, politics, fccnetwork