China won't hold out from buying U.S. soybeans, broker predicts
JAMESTOWN, N.D. — Mark Borrett doesn't think Chinese buyers will be able to hold out from buying U.S. soybeans, no matter the tariff imposed on them.
"They really can't do without our grain," he said.
Borrett, a partner with the LaSalle Group of RCG LLC (Rosenthal Collins Group), spoke in Jamestown on June 18 on the global market outlook, and specifically about what's going on with trade with China.
The event Borrett spoke at was part of a Silveus Financial Speaker Series. Cy Monley, an owner of Silveus Financial, said Silveus holds such events to help farmers understand their marketing plans and introduce them to Silveus's software for financial decisions, nCompass. The software, he said, helps organize financial decisions, including crop insurance, cash sales, puts and calls and more. Another component, HedgeTRAK, helps explain how hedged they should be. The software, Monley said, works for producers of both crops and livestock.
Monley said the idea is to be the data solution for marketing.
"We're the software leaders," he said.
Borrett told the small crowd that China "picked the wrong time for a trade war," given the drought in Argentina.
"Brazil can only supply so much," he said.
By mid-August, Borrett expects that most of the Brazil crop will be spoken for, and by harvest time in the U.S., the market will be based on U.S. soybeans.
The best potential for a winter rally in soybeans might be in January, Borrett predicted.
If China can hold out for more than a season, that might lead to some global changes, including more soybean acres in Brazil and the U.S. going back to more acres of corn, he said.
Borrett also addressed crop conditions, which right now appear to be on par for a good harvest. However, he said June crop conditions don't always correlate with high yield.
"It's August weather and the first week of September that make yield," he said. "We all know that."
Monley also had his "old friend," Jim Kleinsasser at the event to speak. He joked that it was a way to get the former Minnesota Viking "off the couch" and give him something to do besides hunting and fishing.
Kleinsasser, who grew up on a farm in Carrington, said he's now a "full-time dad," and "probably the worst 5, 6, 7-year-old soccer coach in history, but I did it with enthusiasm."
He said has a lot of pride in his upbringing.
"I'm proud to say I'm from North Dakota. I'm proud to say I grew up on a farm," he said.
That connection to the farm is what brought him to the Silveus Financial event in Jamestown. He described his fascination with the possibilities of data in farming.
"You're inundated with information and within that information lies the gold mine — the keys to what you're looking for," he said.
Kleinsasser listened to Borrett's presentation with interest.
"I'm fascinated just by the inner workings of ag, beyond production on the field," he said. "The whole ball game of farming has changed."